School District Enrollment Projections
G/FLRPC staff work with several school districts to produce school district enrollent projections. The enrollment projections generally employ the grade-to-grade cohort survival ratio and housing multiplier methodologies: both of which are considered standards for projections of this type. Grade-to-grade survival cohorts are commonly employed and widely accepted methodology for producing school enrollment projections. To calculate the ratios for each grade level, the number of students in a grade in a given year is divided by the number of students in the next lowest grade the previous year. The assumption behind this methodology is that historical ratios of students that progress through the grade levels are indications of how current and future students will also progress through their corresponding successive grade levels. Housing multipliers are based on four types of residential development: single-family, two-family, three or four-family, and five or more family units. These are developed per unit by type for each of the eleven years by dividing the number of students in each grade by the number of total housing units in the district.
Enrollment projections are generated for grades K – 12 using four main data sources: historical enrollment, annual births, building permits, and major proposed development. Generally the school district will provides enrollment figures for specified previous academic years. Annual birth figures (resident live births) for municipalities is based on the New York State Department of Health’s Bureau of Biometrics. The number of building permits issued for the municipalities located within the district is based on our annual survey of municipal building permits, new construction and subdivisions. Additionally approved development, those pending approval, and likely stages of growth in each municipality is used to compliment the historical building permit data obtained.
Examples of recent school district enrollment projections developed by G/FLRPC include the following:
Marcus Whitman School District Enrollment Projections (February 2008)
Churchville-Chili School District Enrollment Projections (October, 2004)
Wheatland-Chili School District Enrollment Projections (October, 2004)
Canandaigua School District Enrollment Projections (June, 2004)
Canandaigua School District Enrollment Projections (December, 2001)
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Last Modified: February 07, 2008